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Converse Accident
Hasty Generalization
Abstract: Converse accident occurs
when a generalization about all instances of a kind is based on too few
examples, atypical examples, or examples of a different kind.
Converse Accident: (hasty
generalization) the fallacy of considering two few cases or certain
exceptional cases and generalizing to a rule that fits them alone.
(Note that the fallacy of converse accident is the opposite of the
fallacy of accident.)
Description of Converse Accident
Arguments
Converse Accident (hasty generalization)
the fallacy committed by making a generalization on the basis of
insufficient evidence or on the basis of only a few unrepresentative
examples. As a so-called material fallacy, the error in reasoning
arises not from the form of the argument, but from the subject matter
or the meaning of the words.
A basic schema for the Converse Accident fallacy is outlined in
the following informal structure:
Guide
to the Converse Accident Fallacy
An atypical instance (or instances) of some kind
is known to be the case.
The instance (or instances) is an exceptional
case or is present in unusual conditions.
∴ All instances of that kind are the case.
- Consider these examples of converse accident:
- The following argument was offered in a popular magazine to
encourage older persons to begin an exercise program:
“It's never too late to get fit. When Mark Tarnopolsky,
M.D., a professor of pediatrics at McMaster University in
Hamilton, Ontario, took mice bred to age at an accelerated
rate and had them start running as late teenagers, the course
of their lives changed. Within five months (the equivalent
of nearly 20 years in people), the nonrunning control mice
were frail, gray, bald, and dying. But the runners still had
virtually all of their youthful muscle mass, balance, mental
acuity, and fur.”
[Gretchen Reynolds, “Stay Healthy,” Parade
(April 29, 2012), 18.]
Analysis: From the example of an experiment with in-bred
“teenage” mice whose life was extended by running, the
author of this article concludes atypically that all persons
including older persons can get fit. Here are some of the
difficulties with this argument:
First, quite simply, inbred mice are not human beings.
Second, the inbred mice in the experiment started exercise when young,
not late in life as the older persons spoken of would do.
Third, the control mice were dying at a proportional age of under
40 in “human-year parity,” whereas human beings do
not commonly die at this age.
Fourth, the results of one experiment with young mice is
being generalized to apply to older human beings. Control
mice at the corresponding “human age” of 40 were frail,
gray, bald, and dying, whereas human beings who do not exercise
are not frail, gray, bald, and dying at that age.
Fifth, running by mice is not the same kind of exercise as running
done by human beings: mice run on four limbs and human beings run on
two.
Other differences can be drawn from the genetic variability of human
beings to the environmental and dietary dissimilarities between mice
and human beings.
- E.g., The following argument is raised to oppose the
view that boys have greater inherent mathematical ability:
“When I was four, my father taught me the beauty of
numbers, and I have excelled in mathematics ever since. My
conclusion? The males who grew up with a high aptitude for
math are not spending enough time with their daughters.”
[Nancy Whelan Reese, “Letters,” Time
117, No. 1 (January 4, 1981), 6.]
Analysis: From the one example of herself doing well
in mathematics, this writer concludes a generalization about what
all women who have teaching fathers with high mathematical aptitudes
could achieve.
- Converse accident fallacies arise since many different logical
generalizations are consistent with a finite amount of data. But
not all of those generalizations are consistent with each other.
- The conclusion of the Converse Accident is often made on the basis of
carelessly selected evidence. Consider the following examples.
- “I interviewed ten people on Main Street
in Greenwood on Friday night, and they all stated they would
rather be there than watching TV. I conclude that the folks in
Greenwood don't like to watch TV on Friday night.”
- “As I drove to school this morning, not one
car which was turning had its turn signal on. Thus, I
conclude that drivers in this city are not trained to drive
very well.”
- “The induction problem forever haunts
us. How many instances of a class must be observed before one
can be really sure? Having experienced two uncoordinated
woman-drivers, am I justified in making a generalization about
woman-drivers? (For too many men, a sampling of two seems to
justify such a generalization. Women, of course, never make this
sort of error.)”
[James L. Christian, Philosophy: An Introduction to
the Art of Wondering (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston
1990), 181.]
Note, as well, the fallacy inherent in James Christian's generalization
about women.
- “As legislators, women make a difference. They are far
more likely to identify problems of gender bias, and we know
this firsthand. Cokie's mom, Lindy Goggs, served 18 years in
Congress and authored legislation banning discrimination against
women in bank lending practices.”
[Cokie Roberts and Steve Roberts, “Women Are Flexing Their
Political Muscles,” Index-Journal 94 No. 153
(September 30, 2012), 11A. Emphasis added.]
- Converse accident in some passages is sometimes difficult to
identify; in such cases, it is often helpful to reconstruct the
argument from its context, as in the following example from an
editorial:
“[T]he president [commented] last February: ‘One
of the proudest things in my three years in office is helping
to restore a sense of respect for America around the world.’
In light of the uprising that included the burning of American
flags in the Middle East and the murder of Americans in Libya,
that's one more broken promise that can be added to a growing
list.”
[Cal Thomas, “Distractions and Diversions,”;
Index-Journal 94 Vol. 146 (September 24, 2012), 8A.]
In this example, the generalization that there is a growing respect for
America around the world is opposed by the statements of two tragic events.
The two tragic events are cited in support of an implicit generalization
that the President is not helping to restore a sense of respect
for America around the world.
Since these two examples were not particularly atypical examples of events
occurring in world then, this converse accident is fallacious even
though the two examples constitute an extremely weak inductive argument
lending “some” small degree of probability to the unstated
implicit or enthymematic conclusion that the president is not
helping to restore a sense of respect.
- Distinguishing Converse Accident from False Cause: Fallacies
of Converse Accident and generalizations in False Cause
fallacies are often difficult to distinguish from each other. (On occasion,
either fallacy can be said to occur in the same argument.)
- Converse Accident occurs when a generalization about all instances
of a kind is based on either too few examples which are not known to
be typical or based on instances of a different kind, whereas false
cause occurs usually when the conclusion of a causal relation is based
evidentially on a correlation in time or circumstance. The generalization
in converse accident need not be causal, and the causal relation in
false cause need not be general.
Consider this example:
“There's nothing you can't get used to. Just think about
all the unpleasant things you've accepted as ordinary, like
wading through traffic or dealing with a bad-tempered relative or
coworker.”
[Yongey Mingyur Rinpoche, The Joy of Living (New York:
Harmony Books, 2007), 44.]
The argument is that since you have gotten used to a few ordinary
annoying situations, the conclusion then follows that you can get
used to anything. No doubt the author would agree that one wouldn't
adapt to situations like waterboarding, an interrogation technique
involving torture. So the argument is a hasty generalization. Also
the author is not claiming that getting used to unpleasant things
will cause an individual to become accustomed to anything
Since the conclusion is not a causal generalization, the argument is
Converse Accident rather than false cause.
Here's an example from a well-known financial news weekly:
“[T]he market as a rule does better under Democratic
presidents than their counterparts. Certainly, the last four
years proves the point.”
[Robert E. Anderson, “Mailbag: Earnings and Interest,”
Barron's 92 No. 46 (November 12, 2012) , 50.]
The last four years refers to the first Barack Obama administration
when the stock market rose about 20%; this correlation is
only one instance of a Democratic President and an improving market.
The general conclusion is said to follow from this one correlation
that the stock market does better under Democratic leadership than
it does under Republican leadership.
Since no causal relation is explicitly being asserted in
the argument, the better identification of this fallacy is converse
accident. Nevertheless, it is certainly arguable that the author
implicitly intends a causal connection of some sort in the
argument. But he is mistakenly taking this one instance (of the last
four years) as a proof for a rule, rather than viewing past states
of affairs as causal events.
- When the conclusion about a causal generalization is reached
from a premise or from premises involving one or more atypical
correlations or atypical causal relations either fallacy may be said
to occur:
“A balanced, healthy diet is the best remedy for disease
in general. I have a cousin who is a breast cancer survivor,
and she now consumes juiced fruits and vegetables in enormous
quantities to keep herself healthy, and so far her cancer has
stayed in complete remission.”
Karen Lee, “Restoring
Your Inner Balance — How to Stop the Aging Process in Its
Tracks,” Pick the Brain, (accessed April 8, 2012).]
The conclusion that the remedy for all diseases is affected by a
good diet is based on the reason cited of a cousin whose healthy
diet has kept her cancer in remission. This example can be identified
as either converse accident or false cause since a causal
relation of remedying all diseases is concluded from the correlation
or causal relation of one person remedying one disease.
- As a quick check of your understanding of converse accident, evaluate
the following passages.
“Former Brooklyn Dodger Joe Black, speaking in Clinton, helped
put the drug situation in professional athletics in better perspective. The
former pitcher, a black man, said he has no sympathy for the argument that
pressures of the professional athlete's lifestyle can lead to drug abuse.
‘There are no pressures in professional sports that make you use drugs
or booze. Jackie Robinson didn't use drugs. Willie Mays didn't use drugs.
I didn't use drugs. That's a cop out,’ Black said.”
[Index-Journal 64 No. 99 (August 8, 1982), B-3.]
- ”All persons admitted to Lander University must abide by its
policies. Therefore you must abide by the university parking rules.”
- “The USDA policies for farmers are riddled with loopholes. Why I
know a guy who collects thousands of dollars in farm subsidies for not planting
any wheat and spends his spare time at the race track.
“I'm generalizing from one example, here, but everyone generalizes
from one example. At least, I do.”
[Steven Brust, Issola (New York: Macmillan, 2002), Ch. 14.]
“The external world is simply the suggestion, the occasion, which
sets you to study your own mind, but the object of your study is always
your own mind. The falling of an apple gave the suggestion to Newton, and
he studied his own mind; he rearranged all the previous links of thought in
his mind and discovered a new link among them, which we call the law of
gravitation. It was not in the apple nor in anything in the centre of the
earth. All knowledge therefore, secular or spiritual, is in the human
mind.”
[Swami Vivekananda, The Complete Works of the Swami Vivekananda
(Mayavati: Advaita Ashram, 1915), 46.]
FIG. 2. Historical Frequency of Use of “Hasty Generalization,” secundum quid, Converse Accident
in Google Books 1800-2019.
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